So here’s my baseline bracket for 2011. Pretty standard bracket based on Sargarin rankings.
I did tweak it to have BYU lose to Florida in the Sweet 16, rather than have them advance and lose to Pitt in the Elite 8. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that BYU shot themselves in the foot by suspending Davies. Interestingly, this assumption isn’t showing up in the Vegas lines (yet). I would think that BYU would be so heavily underbet that that you might be able to get nice odds on them, but that’s not so.
Lastly, I’ll mention that in most pools, I’d probably actually pick Duke or Kansas to win the tournament. Although I think Ohio will take the whole thing, I think that they are a poor bet. Since Ohio State are the heavy favorite, you’d likely have to either spilt the pot or you’d lose on previous picks. Whereas, if you pick either Duke or KU, you have a much better shot of taking the whole thing based on you being the only one in your pool to pick the winner. Think about this for a second. If Ohio has a 60% chance of winning but you have to split a hundred dollar pot, your expected winnings are only $30. But, if Duke has a 40% chance you can expect a $40 payout because you didn’t have to split the pot. This is basically the theory that Niemi, Carlin, and Alexander came up with in this awesome paper a couple years ago.
Just a quick shot from this weekend’s adventure. The peak on the right is Bryant Peak as seen from the pass above Snow Lake. I skinned in, but ended up keeping the skins on my skis all day since the conditions were so terrible–slide debris was everywhere you looked. But, the few sun breaks I got once up high made the effort worthwhile.
This Christmas my whole family came to Seattle. We rented a really cool house out on Bainbridge Island. The Sun even made an appearence during the week which was much appreciated by everyone. The rain didn’t hamper things as most of us just wanted to unwind with a book inside. My parents did, however, adopt the true Seattle spirit and don their Gore-Tex everyday to venture out on their walk in the rain.
November was a really crazy month for me. The really wasn’t one bad week at work just a steady grind of things to do. Combine that with having vistors every weekend of the month and I didn’t have too much time to myself.
The first week of December brought me a wonderful Christmas present–a horrible cold. This one pulled out all the stops, a terrible headache that had no respect for any pain killer, a sore throat, fever, runny nose, and now it seems to be moving into my chest.
Anyway, here are a couple shots I grabbed in between all the commotion this past month.
I have never seen so much genuine patriotism in America.
While the past 8 years has played host to numerous widespread protests against Bush policy, tonight a much more constructive and optimistic dynamic permeated the crowd.
Traffic was stopped all along 1st avenue as a spontaneous parade moved south through downtown Seattle. Seattle Police held back traffic and the parade was peaceful.
