Andrew Jesaitis ::

the attic of my mind

Howard Lederer: On Poker & Trading the Markets

A pretty interesting comparison between poker and trading. Especially the part about knowing when to fold (exit a trade) rather than being married to your position.

I’ll add that you can actually “lose” and get the direction wrong on a trade, but still make money trading options.

Another point, I think is overlooked is that trades price a security efficiently (accurately) only in the sense that it is the assumed value of of the security, not the actual value. Same thing in poker, your bets are pricing the assumed value of your hand, not the real value had you total knowledge of your opponents’ hands. This pricing however is probably closer to finding the real value in the market since there are more players. Thus, you might be able to make the argument that poker is a less efficient market than the stock market and could provide the skilled player with a larger edge.

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